Crude oil prices in the physical market climbed to approximately $150 per barrel Monday as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalated, representing the steepest levels witnessed since 2008 during ongoing supply interruptions from the US-Israel dispute with Iran.
This price spike demonstrates severe supply constraints as refiners across Europe and Asia battle for scarce crude resources, with immediate delivery costs substantially outpacing paper futures agreements.
Key Takeaways
- Physical oil prices near $150, highest since 2008 financial crisis
- Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to most tanker traffic
- JPMorgan warns prices could stay elevated through mid-May
Market Reaction & Context
Brent crude futures climbed 7.78% to $109.03 per barrel, while WTI jumped 11.41% to $111.54 per barrel on Thursday 1. The spread between spot delivery and futures contracts expanded to $32.33, underscoring the intensity of the physical supply shortage 2.
The International Energy Agency chief stated the ongoing crisis surpasses the oil disruptions of 1973, 1979, and 2022 when combined 3. Roughly 20% of global daily oil and LNG transit normally moves through the Strait of Hormuz prior to the current conflict.
Supply Chain Disruption
Saudi Arabia has redirected tankers to its southern Red Sea facilities, while Oman evacuated its key export terminal over safety concerns 1. China limited domestic fuel price increases to cushion consumers from the impact, raising gasoline prices by only 420 yuan per metric ton versus the scheduled 800 yuan increase 4.
The US announced plans to release 172 million barrels from strategic reserves, representing more than one-third of total stockpiles 1. Even with these emergency actions, analysts caution that restoring supply networks could require three to six months regardless of immediate strait reopening.
Expert Outlook
JPMorgan Chase cautioned that crude could surpass $150 per barrel should Hormuz interruptions continue through mid-May, with pricing anticipated to hit $120-$130 in the immediate future 5. The financial institution’s primary scenario anticipates eventual resolution via diplomatic channels following a period of constrained supply and stock depletion.
“The magnitude and duration of the oil price spike will be key factors determining the severity of the broader macroeconomic impact,” JPMorgan analysts said 6.
Economic Impact
US gasoline prices have climbed above $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022, with experts warning of potential $5 per gallon if the crisis continues 6. The commodity surge carries wider ramifications, with HSBC documenting March commodity prices increasing 14% month-over-month, the steepest rise since Russia’s 2022 Ukraine invasion.
The disruption encompasses more than petroleum, impacting aluminum manufacturing in the UAE and Bahrain, while Qatar’s helium supplies essential for semiconductor production remain interrupted. These supply network disruptions risk rekindling inflationary pressures throughout major economies.
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.
References
1Tom Chivers (March 12, 2026). “Oil prices rise above $100 again over Strait of Hormuz attacks”. Yahoo Finance. Retrieved April 7, 2026.
2Stay in Thailand (3 days ago). “BRENT – The spot price for current physical cargoes of Brent crude oil soared Thursday to $141.36”. Facebook. Retrieved April 7, 2026.
3Reuters (April 7, 2026). “IEA chief: current oil and gas crisis worse than 1973, 1979, 2022 together”. Reuters. Retrieved April 7, 2026.
4Reuters (April 7, 2026). “China curbs domestic fuel price hike again to soften impact of surging oil prices”. Reuters. Retrieved April 7, 2026.
5Tsvetana Paraskova (April 3, 2026). “JP Morgan Sees $150 Oil if Hormuz Remains Closed Through Mid-May”. OilPrice.com. Retrieved April 7, 2026.
6BigGo Finance (April 3, 2026). “JPMorgan Warns of Soaring Oil Prices: Prolonged Strait of Hormuz Disruption Could Drive Oil to $150 per Barrel”. BigGo Finance. Retrieved April 7, 2026.