General Motors (GM) posted a 7% rise in U.S. second-quarter 2025 vehicle sales, leading the domestic market, yet a new Cox Automotive forecast warns Toyota could close the gap to its narrowest margin since 2021 by year-end.
For long-horizon investors, the competitive pressure from Toyota’s hybrid-heavy lineup raises a structural question about whether GM’s crossover and EV momentum can sustain its number-one ranking as consumer powertrain preferences continue to shift.
Key Takeaways
- GM Q2 2025 U.S. sales rose 7%; first-half gains reached 12%.
- Cox Automotive projects GM down 7.2% in first-half 2026 versus Toyota up ~1%.
- GM EV sales more than doubled in Q2 2025, Chevrolet became top EV brand.
Market Reaction & Context
GM’s Q2 2025 result of a 7% sales gain outpaced the broader U.S. auto industry’s estimated 4% total growth for the same period, according to the company’s July 1, 2025 sales release 1. That leadership position, however, is showing signs of erosion heading into 2026: Cox Automotive’s mid-year forecast, released June 24, 2026, projects GM’s first-half 2026 U.S. sales down 7.2% to roughly 1.33 million vehicles, while Toyota is seen rising nearly 1% to approximately 1.25 million 4.
The projected gap of about 83,000 vehicles would be the narrowest between the two automakers since Toyota briefly topped GM in 2021. Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, said during a media briefing that “GM may be looking over their shoulder here when we get to the year’s end, that Toyota could potentially overtake them as the top selling manufacturer here in the U.S. market.” 4
Detailed Analysis
GM’s 2025 outperformance was broad-based across its four brands. Buick, which sells only crossovers, logged the largest first-half sales increase of any mainstream brand, up 29%, driven by the redesigned Envista and Encore GX 1. Chevrolet posted its best first-half result since 2019, up 9%, with record crossover deliveries led by the Equinox.
On the electric vehicle front, GM more than doubled EV deliveries in Q2 2025 year-over-year, vaulting Chevrolet to best-selling EV brand status for the quarter, while Cadillac captured the luxury EV market-share lead 1. The EV story, however, darkened sharply in the back half of the year: GM’s Q4 2025 EV sales fell 43% as buyers pulled purchases forward ahead of the September 30, 2025 expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit – a dynamic also hammering rivals such as Ford and Hyundai 2. Investors tracking the broader EV transition may find a parallel at Rivian, which also faced demand headwinds following the EV credit loss.
For the full year 2025, GM reported 2.85 million U.S. vehicles sold, up nearly 6% from 2024, reclaiming the title of America’s top-selling automaker 2. Full-size pickup sales rose for the sixth consecutive year, and full-size SUVs – Tahoe, Suburban, and Yukon – gave GM its 51st straight year of segment leadership.
The competitive threat from Toyota is structural rather than cyclical. Toyota’s electrified vehicles accounted for 47% of its full-year 2025 U.S. volume – the vast majority hybrids – while GM and Ford concentrated capital on pure battery-electric platforms whose consumer take-rate proved weaker than anticipated once the federal incentive expired 2.
Outlook & Management Commentary
Duncan Aldred, GM’s senior vice president and president of North America, credited investment in redesigned crossovers and pickups for the company’s 2025 momentum. “The investments we have made in our crossovers, SUVs, and pickups – both gas and electric – along with great execution by our employees, suppliers and dealers, have made GM the engine of growth for the U.S. industry this year,” Aldred said 1.
That confidence is being tested by tariff headwinds: GM’s Q2 2025 earnings report disclosed a $1.1 billion tariff-related loss, compressing margins even as unit volumes climbed 3. Chesbrough at Cox said the trends heading into mid-2026 are “concerning for General Motors,” though he stopped short of formally forecasting a Toyota overtake 4.
Conclusion
GM enters the second half of 2026 with the top U.S. sales ranking intact but under mounting pressure on two fronts: a rival whose hybrid lineup is structurally aligned with current consumer demand, and a tariff burden that erodes the profit per unit that makes volume leadership financially meaningful. For investors with a long horizon, the question is less about who sells the most vehicles in any given quarter and more about which powertrain bets – GM’s EV-first strategy or Toyota’s hybrid bridge – proves durable as the credit landscape and consumer sentiment continue to evolve.
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.
References
1General Motors (Jul 1, 2025). “GM posts strong Q2 and first half sales on industry leading growth”. General Motors Investor Relations. Retrieved July 1, 2026.
2(Jan 6, 2026). “Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Vehicle Sales: GM Leads U.S. Market, Hybrids Surge as EV Sales Collapse”. Autobody News. Retrieved July 1, 2026.
3Pickup Truck Plus SUV Talk (Jul 22, 2025). “2025 GM Q2 Earnings Reports $1.1B Tariff Loss – Better with Mary?”. YouTube. Retrieved July 1, 2026.
4Michael Wayland (Jun 24, 2026). “Toyota gains on General Motors in new U.S. sales forecast: ‘GM may be looking over their shoulder'”. CNBC. Retrieved July 1, 2026.