The Food Crisis Has Arrived

Ukraine War Causes Wheat Prices to Nearly Double — With Famine Now a Looming Reality for Many

  • The world’s #1 and #5 wheat exporters are at war. Ukraine production is down 33%. And Putin is threatening to cut off the country’s wheat exports to the rest of the world.
  • That’s just the immediate crisis. Inflation threatens to price out poorer countries in the medium-term. And, in the long-term, increasingly inclement weather is causing droughts, flooding, fires, and a proliferation of pests that could permanently reduce our ability to feed ourselves.
  •  The Good Flour Corp. (CSE: GFCO, OTC: GFCOFCSE: GFCO, OTC: GFCOF), aptly dubbed “the new wheat,” has developed a wheat alternative: a non-GMO, gluten-free, rice- and millet-based flour that is healthier, higher quality, and competitively priced.
  • The company is based in Canada, far from the European battlefield, and can produce up to 20,000 lbs of flour a day theough a combination of its own production facility and the assistance of co-packers. That won’t cover the gap — but it is provides an alternative with potential to add further production. And, with wheat’s price doubling and heading higher, The Good Flour Corp.’s high-quality, and better for you, chef-developed flour could soon cost the same as wheat flour.

It used to be said that the world was producing enough food to feed everyone — that famines were a problem of distribution, not production. No one is saying that anymore.

The war in Ukraine has reduced the country’s wheat crop by 33%. And the problem will only get worse, as more of the country receives battle scars, is littered with dangerous mines, and faces mass depopulation.

A New York Times article brought global attention to just how devastating this problem has become, stating:

"...planting and harvesting have become such harrowing undertakings that Ukraine will inevitably have less to export this year and into the future, given the obstacles to farming. The U.S. Department of Agriculture, for example, has forecast that Ukraine’s wheat exports, worth $5.1 billion last year, will fall by half after this year’s harvest." 1

Putin has threatened to shut down all Ukrainian grain exports via the Black Sea — only backing down when Turkey’s Erdogan told him such a move would lose Russia the few friends she still has. Don’t expect that to last, though.

A global flour shortage is looming

What’s more, the markets know this. When Putin initially shut off Black Sea trade routes, the price of wheat shot up 6% in a single morning.2

Mind you, Research and Markets shows that wheat already commanded a $160 billion global market as of 2020, making a jump of that degree all the more significant.

Putin backed down — but the price of wheat didn’t. It remains elevated, just a little below the all-time high it hit in February when the war began.

The markets expect Putin to use wheat as a bargaining chip in the future — just as he has in the past.

What’s more — even with Ukraine’s wheat exports getting out — demand passed supply this year. And that’s despite the rest of the world picking up the slack and producing a record amount!3

Wheat Production Going Forward is a Very Open Question

Not only is the war between the world’s #1 and #5 wheat exporters likely to depress production…

But over-cultivation has left traditionally rich soils depleted of nutrients, making many heritage fields increasingly unproductive. Between excessive heat… increased insect populations… and more and larger floods and droughts… areas that were once breadbaskets are quickly becoming barren.

That’s why India temporarily halted wheat exports — the country doesn’t have enough to feed itself anymore, let alone others.

India reversed that decision under pressure from the countries that depend on India’s wheat to survive. But it’s only a matter of time before India — and others — halt exports, in order to feed their own populations.

The simple fact is we don’t have enough wheat to feed ourselves today. We will have less wheat for a larger population tomorrow. And even if the Ukraine war ended immediately, the increasing footprint of barren soil across the globe means that cold calculus will hold going forward.

That’s why the world needs a new, better for you wheat.

Luckily,  The Good Flour Corp. (CSE: GFCO, OTC: GFCOFCSE: GFCO, OTC: GFCOF) Already Has One

The company developed its rice and millet flour as a healthier, tastier alternative to traditional flour. It is allergen-free, GMO-free, and gluten-free. Yet it behaves the same way regular wheat flour does when cooking, and is preferred by chefs due to its premium flavor.

The Good Flour Corp set out to create a healthy alternative to wheat flour, for those who needed an alternative for health reasons, or those who wanted a higher quality alternative.

But, it turns out, the war in Ukraine has  increased interest in wheat-alternative products like what The Good Flour Corp. produces.

Originally more expensive than wheat flour — designed for a premium experience — wheat’s skyrocketing price has now made The Good Flour Corp.’s flour a more affordable alternative.

And originally designed to be healthier, the company’s flour is also relatively immune to many of the issues wheat currently faces.

After all, neither Russia nor Ukraine are major rice producers.

And rice production isn’t nearly as affected by variations in weather as wheat — which depends on very ecologically sensitive fields.

But it turns out The Good Flour Corp is producing a potential alternative to one of the world’s most important grains, at the exact moment that grain supply is falling apart.

Who would have guessed a high-end food product could become an alternative to wheat which is facing a global production crisis?

When Small Companies Go Big

GFCO began selling products in a few stores in Canada. You might have thought that was too small to matter. But in the food and drink business, that’s exactly how fortune-building breakouts happen. For instance…

Kathleen King began selling chocolate chip cookies at her parents’ farm stand. Then when she turned 21, she opened one store… the original Tate’s Bakeshop in Southampton, NY.4 She sold Tate’s to Mondelez for $500 million in 2018, where it’s now an important brand in the $25 billion a year business. 5

Snapple started out in a few stores on Long Island.6 Now you see it everywhere.

Amy’s Organic started with homemade chicken potpies in Petaluma, California.7 Sales are now a $500 million a year just on frozen dinners.

Oatly’s journey began humbly 25 years ago, as a novel concept that nutrition scientists at Sweden’s Lund University were exploring. Adoption for this novel product was initially slow to come by. Fast forward to May 2021, and Oatly Group saw its market cap soar to $10 billion, after a noisy IPO that opened at more than $22.

The Secret Weapon Of Culinary Masters

Stanley Tucci poses with guests on his acclaimed series,  Searching For Italy, which draws in excess of 1.64 million viewers.

It took ten years of testing and perfecting its products for The Good Flour Corp to become an “overnight success.”

  • The celebrity chef and owner of Cioppino’s has long depended on Good Flour products to make the handcrafted gluten-free pastas his restaurant is known for.
  • Stanley Tucci couldn’t offer greater praise for the Mediterranean grill, placing Cioppino’s at the top of his coveted list of favorites. 
  • Esteemed chef for the Ritz Carlton Laguna Niguel and a slew of five star establishments, Frederic Nail proclaimed,

“The search is over, the Good Flour Company got it right, flavor and texture, it is hands down the best Gluten-free products I’ve ever tasted.”

But the company is preparing for the transition from high-end product to everyday staple.

With a new production facility that just came online in 2021, the company can raise production capacity 8 to 14X higher than prior levels.

The Good Flour Corp. (CSE: GFCO, OTC: GFCOFCSE: GFCO, OTC: GFCOF), the new wheat, should be on your research list. Everything is coming together at the same time:

  1. The Canadian Pizza Chain Panago is using the Good Flour Gluten Free Pizza crust in 195 locations across Canada, that includes a combination of both storefronts and ghost kitchens.
  2. Good Flour has recently ramped up production through its new 7,000 square foot facility and automation line that just came online – allowing the company to produce up to 3,500 pounds of flour per shift per day. That’s on top of the 3,000-square-foot baking facility that handles pizza crusts for Panago and Earls, and burger buns for White Spot.
  3. The company is targeting distribution opportunities in national retail chains and with major food service clients across North America.
  4. Recently listed on the Canadian stock market, that included a fundraising to provide expansion funds, means they can act on their solid plan for the future.
  5. And, of course, the disruption to the wheat market means The Good Flour’s rice and millet-based flour offer an alternative.

GFCO already has distribution through major global brands such as Sprouts, Harvest Food Distributors, Panago Pizza, Choices Market, Amazon, Fairmont Hotels, Gordon Food Service, and Sysco Food Service.

Then recently Good flour inked a deal with KeHe, the largest pure-play distributor of natural and organic products to more than 30,000 stores and chains throughout North America.

That’s why this opportunity could take the whole journey from startup to international recognition.

An Early Entry Point

If you wonder how one young company with a handful of alternative flour products could disrupt the $160 billion global flour market, take a walk around a grocery store and it will be clear.

Wheat flour is in everything from bread to tomato soup and chicken nuggets.

Some companies, like Bob’s Red Mill, which sells flour, are getting a fraction of the potential. So does Udi’s, which sells frozen breads. But GFCO is taking a unique approach. It’s aiming to offer gluten-free, allergen free, pre-spiced dry blends in every corner of the wheat market, addressing both sweet and savory for a variety of baking and cooking needs:

  • Double 00 Flour
  • Pizza Crusts
  • Pasta
  • Fried Chicken
  • Fish & Chips
  • Pancake & Waffle
  • Tempura
  • Cakes
  • Bulk Mixes for Restaurant
  • Burger Buns

They’re working on wheat-free products for:

  • The bread aisle (a $20.5 billion market as of 2019)8

  • The flour section of the store (flour milling is a $17 billion market in the US)9

  • and pancake, breading and waffle mixes (another $2.5 billion-plus)10

Grandview Research puts the gluten-free pizza crust market at $2.23 billion.11 That’s why GFCO’s successful trial with Panago Pizza highlights the potential for this young company.

Chef-Driven Innovation Perfects the Healthier Flour the World Was Waiting For  

The Good Flour Corp. is different from all the competition because it started differently. This is not the story of a giant adding a new product. This is a story about survival and taste.

In 2012, Good Flour’s founder, Chef Jen Peters was diagnosed with celiac disease.

Jen trained under Bruno Marti, the godfather of Canadian fine cuisine. She also worked in Michelin-starred restaurants in Europe. Her partner Hamid Salimian, also a brilliant chef, has worked alongside her in the development of the complete product line.

Jen and Hamid made tweaks that only gifted chefs would try—like putting a touch of ginger in one mix to get wheat-like warmth, or adding a tiny bit of turmeric in another one.  But that was not the most startling thing they did.

Because Jen and Hamid cook like chefs, they understand that wheat substitutes are not wheat… and the only way to develop the absolute best ones is to accept those limits.

Yet big companies like Pillsbury, King Arthur keep selling their one basic GF mix (usually rice flour) as though it can replace wheat in every possible use. The results have been poor-tasting products that don’t hold up to heat, and in the end, disappoint the consumer. 

Because of its tailored products that work well and taste right, The Good Flour Corp. (CSE: GFCO, OTC: GFCOFCSE: GFCO, OTC: GFCOF), the new wheat, is working toward a future with its products in the pasta section, cracker aisle, bakery, frozen food section… they might even end up as ingredients in things like canned soup and gravies.

To give you an idea how much change that could mean, think about the dairy aisle.

A Thriving New Market Niche for
The Good Flour Corp. to Dominate

Remember when the dairy case was just cow’s milk?

No more. These days’ you can hardly find the regular milk for all the almond, soy, oat, and whatnot products crowding it off the shelf.

Now consider this… the gluten-free (GF) flour market is bigger than the milk market. It’s worth $22 billion already.  

This revolution is barely at the beginning and GFCO has a plan to offer products in every corner of it.

That’s the Kind of Future That Could Very Well Happen for  The Good Flour Corp. (CSE: GFCO, OTC: GFCOFCSE: GFCO, OTC: GFCOF). It All Adds Up to…

  1. Still A New and Unnoticed Public Company — GFCO just came to the Canadian stock market on Nov. 8, 2021.
  2. Disruptive Ideas Win Shelf Space – Timely new ideas have completely revised the world’s eating habits. The last two years have seen a series of disruptors, with meat, milk and cheese alternatives each having their big market moments. It’s now time for the global flour market.
  3. The Whole Blazing Grocery Store Is Open —baking aisle, bread aisle, and frozen foods… GFCO is working to develop and produce selections for every aisle of the grocery stores where wheat now lurks.
  4. Health Matters — It’s not just for people with gluten intolerances. GFCO wheat-free flours are higher in fiber. They have more whole grains, lower sodium (salt), higher potassium (good for your blood pressure) and 12% lower carb content compared to regular wheat flour.
  5. Unique Approach To Disrupt the Competition— Chef-driven creativity is meeting marketplace demand with tastier and better performing products.
  6. Production Expansion — GFCO is moving fast with its production expansion plans. It launched an aggressive direct-to-consumer program in Q1 with a brand new website and eCommerce platform in place to scale orders across North America. It’s now operating a new packing plant in Canada allowing them to increase capacity by up 8 to 14X. Running two 8-hour shifts a day, in the new 7,000 square foot facility, it can produce $10 million worth of GFCO products per year. The company also still continues to operate its 3,000 square foot baking facility, which handles production of the frozen Good Flour pizza crust and burger bun.
  7. A Disruptive Alternative — With the wheat market disrupted by the Ukraine War, and climate change threatening future production, the world needs alternatives. GFCO is perfectly positioned to give the world that alternative.

Investment Opportunity

The flour and wheat markets are about to change drastically, just the way the milk and meat markets have been disrupted.The Good Flour Corp. (CSE: GFCO, OTC: GFCOFCSE: GFCO, OTC: GFCOF) is the one company that looks to step into the lead.

1.https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/04/world/europe/ukraine-russia-farms-farming-wheat-barley.html 2.https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/wheat-climbs-more-than-5-russia-withdraws-black-sea-export-agreement-2022-10-31/ 3.https://www.uswheat.org/market-information/supply-and-demand/ 4.https://www.tatesbakeshop.com/the-bake-shop-way 5.https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2018/05/11/tates-sold-for-500-million/ 6.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snapple 7.https://www.amys.com/our-story/our-family 8.https://www.perishablenews.com/bakery/global-retail-packaged-bread-market-to-witness-sustained-growth-throughout-the-forecast-period-2020-2027/ 9.https://www.ibisworld.com/united-states/market-research-reports/flour-milling-industry/ 10.other than flour milling, figures are from GFCO investor deck. No data for pancake and waffle sales alone. 11.https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/gluten-free-pizza-crust-market

 

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