NEW YORK, Nov 1, 2025 – Alternative economic indicators suggest the U.S. economy continues expanding despite ongoing government shutdown delaying official jobs reports.
The absence of key labor market data has forced investors and policymakers to rely on private sector metrics and other economic indicators to gauge employment trends.
Key Takeaways
- Government shutdown blocks official jobs reports for second month
- Private data shows “essentially no job growth” recently
- Economy still expanding amid trade and hiring uncertainties
Market reaction & context
The missing September and October employment situation summaries have left markets without crucial Federal Reserve decision-making data 1. Private employment tracking services have stepped in to fill the void, though their methodologies differ from Bureau of Labor Statistics standards.
The economy previously added 911,000 fewer jobs than initially reported for the April 2024 to March 2025 period, according to revised government data released in September 2.
Detailed analysis
Moody’s Analytics reported the U.S. economy saw “essentially no job growth” in recent months, with employment gains concentrated in just three states and primarily within the healthcare sector 3. This represents a sharp deceleration from earlier 2025 hiring patterns.
Despite the slowdown, broader economic indicators suggest continued expansion. The economy has shown resilience even amid what analysts describe as “a cloud of uncertainty” including the government shutdown, ongoing trade tensions, and the marked hiring deceleration 4.
Outlook & expert commentary
Labor market experts emphasize that unemployment rates can remain stable even with reduced job creation, particularly as demographic shifts see more workers aging out of the workforce. “More people aging out of the workforce” helps explain how jobless rates can hold steady despite fewer new positions, economists noted 5.
The Federal Reserve continues monitoring multiple economic indicators beyond employment data to assess monetary policy needs. Inflation remains below peak levels while the broader economy shows signs of stabilization after a first-quarter dip.
Conclusion
While official employment data remains unavailable due to the government shutdown, alternative metrics paint a picture of an economy in transition. The sharp hiring slowdown represents a significant shift from earlier 2025 trends, yet other indicators suggest underlying economic stability.
Investors await resolution of the government shutdown to restore access to comprehensive labor market data crucial for Fed policy decisions and market analysis.
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.
References
1MarketWatch (2025). “No jobs report again. But these numbers show how the U.S. economy is doing”. Retrieved Nov 1, 2025.
2YouTube (Sep 9, 2025). “U.S. economy added 911,000 fewer jobs than previously believed”. Retrieved Nov 1, 2025.
3Fox Business (Oct 6, 2025). “The US economy saw ‘essentially no job growth’ last month: Moody’s”. Retrieved Nov 1, 2025.
4Moomoo (2025). “No Jobs Report Again. But These Numbers Show How the U.S.”. Retrieved Nov 1, 2025.
5CNN (Oct 3, 2025). “There’s no jobs report today. So here’s what we know about the US”. Retrieved Nov 1, 2025.
6Marketplace (2025). “Absent the jobs report, let’s look at other labor market indicators”. Retrieved Nov 1, 2025.
7Wall Street Journal (Oct 8, 2025). “The Unofficial Jobs Numbers Are In and It’s Rough Out There”. Retrieved Nov 1, 2025.
8Bureau of Labor Statistics (Sep 5, 2025). “Employment Situation Summary – 2025 M08 Results”. Retrieved Nov 1, 2025.
9NerdWallet (2025). “How Is the Economy Doing Right Now?”. Retrieved Nov 1, 2025.