The Federal Aviation Administration is set to certify Boeing’s (BA.N) 737 MAX 10 as soon as next week after completing a key safety review Friday, a milestone that could unlock a significant delivery backlog for the planemaker.
For long-horizon investors, the MAX 10 certificate represents the final regulatory gate on Boeing’s best-selling narrowbody family – a clearance that could materially accelerate revenue recognition and free cash flow as carriers awaiting the jet begin taking deliveries.
Key Takeaways
- FAA completed its safety review Friday; approval expected as soon as next week.
- MAX 10 is the last of the MAX family awaiting FAA certification.
- A September software glitch had triggered a near-7% single-day drop in BA shares.
Market Reaction & Context
Boeing shares had tumbled nearly 7% on Sept. 28 after the FAA said it would delay MAX 10 certification to assess a vertical-navigation software bug – a sharper single-session decline than the broader S&P 500 Industrials index, which was little changed that day 1. The latest sources-based report from Reuters, dated Oct. 16, signals that the safety review has now been resolved, offering a potential catalyst for BA to recoup those losses 2.
The MAX 10 is Boeing’s largest and most fuel-efficient single-aisle variant, commanding strong interest from carriers including United Airlines, which had been weighing how to deploy the hundreds of seats it ordered years in advance 1.
The Road to Certification
The FAA had certified the smaller MAX 7 in August, leaving the MAX 10 as the sole outstanding member of the family 1. That process hit a fresh snag in late September when Boeing disclosed a software glitch affecting a vertical navigation system during go-around maneuvers – situations where pilots must abort a landing and re-approach the runway.
FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford described the issue as a workload concern rather than an outright control failure.
“The pilots remain in control of the airliner, train for these scenarios. The issue that we’re looking at right now is the workload component,” Bedford said at a Washington press conference on Sept. 28 1.
Bedford also noted that a previous bug in the same system had been fixed, but the patch “unexpectedly introduced a new bug” – underscoring the iterative nature of software certification on modern fly-by-wire aircraft 1.
What Approval Would Mean for Boeing’s Pipeline
Boeing had originally planned to begin MAX 10 deliveries in 2020; repeated safety crises and manufacturing setbacks pushed that timeline by more than six years. Certification would allow the company to begin converting its substantial order book into deliveries – and, critically, into revenue that Boeing cannot recognize until aircraft change hands.
CEO Kelly Ortberg told investors earlier in October that MAX 10 approval was expected “very soon,” framing it as a key step in stabilizing the production system 1. Investors focused on Boeing’s free-cash-flow trajectory should note that each delayed MAX 10 delivery represents deferred income on what is typically a high-margin, late-cycle aircraft sale.
Outlook
The FAA said its certification timeline is governed by safety, not schedule, and had pledged it “won’t hesitate to take action if needed” – language that leaves a residual tail risk if reviewers surface additional concerns before a formal approval order is signed 1. Boeing said it continues “to follow the lead of the FAA” as the process concludes.
U.S. airlines have indicated they are not affected by the software issue on currently operating MAX variants, as they can revert to older software versions on those models. The newer software version under review applies specifically to the MAX 10 configuration 1.
Conclusion
A MAX 10 certificate, if issued in the coming days, would mark a structural inflection point in Boeing’s multi-year recovery – closing the regulatory chapter on the MAX family and paving the way for a delivery ramp that analysts have long flagged as central to the company’s cash generation story. Long-term holders will be watching whether manufacturing capacity, rather than certification, becomes the binding constraint on output.
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.
References
1Leslie Josephs (2026-09-28). “Boeing 737 Max 10 certification delayed by software issue, FAA says”. CNBC. Retrieved 2026-10-16.
2(2026-10-16). “FAA set to approve Boeing 737 MAX 10 as soon as next week, sources say”. Reuters. Retrieved 2026-10-16.