- Container volumes between U.S. and China fell 30-40% in April.
- Full-year volume growth revised to range of -1% to 4%.
- Profit forecast remains unchanged at $6 billion to $9 billion.
Market reaction & context
Maersk’s announcement comes as the broader shipping industry struggles with similar pressures from trade tariffs imposed by the U.S. on China. Hapag-Lloyd has indicated that it experienced a 30% reduction in shipments to the U.S. from China due to these tariffs, underscoring the pervasive impact of the U.S.-China trade conflict on global shipping dynamics.
Detailed analysis
In a market update, Maersk cited that container volumes between the U.S. and China plummeted 30-40% in April as trade hostilities escalated. The company now projects that global container volume growth for 2025 will be much weaker than earlier estimates, predicting a contraction of 1% to a maximum growth of 4%. This contrasts with an earlier forecast of approximately 4% growth made earlier in the year.
Despite the bleak outlook for container volumes, Maersk maintained its full-year profit guidance unchanged between $6 billion and $9 billion, indicating some resilience in its operational efficiency and revenue management strategies. CEO Vincent Clerc remarked in an interview that while the trade conflict is predominantly a U.S.-China issue, it has had a tangible impact on shipping activity.
Outlook / management quote
“The outlook for global container demand over the remainder of the year remains highly uncertain, shaped by a rapidly evolving trade policy landscape,” said Clerc.
Maersk anticipates potential growth in the second quarter, especially if importers capitalize on a 90-day pause of reciprocal tariffs by frontloading shipments. However, the company remains cautious about demand recovery, citing increasing recession risks in the U.S.
Conclusion
The ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China continues to disrupt supply chains, elevating uncertainties for shipping companies like Maersk. Investors should monitor these developments closely, as they could influence global trade patterns and shipping profitability moving forward.
No investment advice. For informational purposes only.
References
1 reuters.com (May 8, 2025). “Maersk warns global container volumes could drop due to trade war.” Reuters. Retrieved October 25, 2023.
2 Investor’s Business Daily (May 8, 2025). “Trump Trade War: Shipping Giant Changes Outlook; Outlines Scenarios For U.S.-China Trade Talks.” Retrieved October 25, 2023.
3 gcaptain.com (May 8, 2025). “Maersk Cuts Global Container Market Outlook on Tariff War.” Retrieved October 25, 2023.