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Nubank’s Record Profit Fuels Positive Outlook

Nubank profit growth illustration
Nubank profit growth illustration

Nu Holdings (NU.N) posted its first-ever $1 billion quarterly profit, beating consensus by roughly 10% and sending shares up nearly 9.5% in after-hours trading on Thursday.

For long-horizon investors, the standout data point is not the headline number but the sharp widening of risk-adjusted net interest margin-a metric that signals whether Nubank’s credit business is becoming structurally more profitable, not just larger.

Key Takeaways

  • Q2 net profit hit $1.06 billion, up 49% year-on-year FX-neutral.
  • Risk-adjusted NIM expanded to 12.4% from 9.9% a year earlier.
  • Cost of credit fell sequentially to $1.69 billion, easing delinquency fears.

Margin Quality: The Number That Moved the Stock

Nu Holdings reported revenue of $5.88 billion for the April-June quarter, a 39% year-on-year rise that cleared the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of $5.60 billion by roughly 5% 1. More important to analysts, risk-adjusted net interest margin climbed to 12.4%, up from 9.9% a year ago-a level that JPMorgan said surpassed even optimistic expectations.

“We believe bull investors were working with ~11% risk-adjusted NIM, meaning this is a solid beat even for investors who were positive into the print,” JPMorgan analysts said.

That margin expansion puts Nubank ahead of many regional peers on credit efficiency, a distinction that matters for long-dated holders who want evidence the business model scales without sacrificing underwriting quality. For comparison, traditional Brazilian banks have faced pressure on NIMs as funding costs rose with the Selic rate cycle.

Market Reaction & Context

NU.N shares jumped roughly 9.5% in extended trading to approximately $15.25 following the release 1. The move outpaced same-session gains in broader Latin American fintech names, reflecting investor relief on both the margin and credit-quality fronts.

The stock’s after-hours pop also echoes the kind of re-rating seen at other high-growth financial platforms when margin durability becomes visible-similar to how UBS’s buyback-backed profit beat reset valuation expectations earlier this cycle. Nubank’s customer base now stands at nearly 139 million across Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia, and the company is preparing an entry into the U.S. market.

Credit Portfolio: Growth Moderates, Quality Improves

The credit portfolio reached $39.4 billion, reflecting 37% year-on-year expansion but a more measured 5% sequential rise-a deliberate deceleration from an unusually strong first-quarter pace 1. Chief Financial Officer Rob Livingston, who assumed the role last month, said the slowdown was intentional and does not signal a structural pullback.

Cost of credit declined to $1.69 billion from $1.79 billion in the prior quarter, though it remains 60% above year-ago levels as the book continues to season. Early delinquency rates eased to 4.8% from 5.0% in Q1, a sequential improvement that suggests the portfolio’s risk profile is stabilizing rather than deteriorating.

Desenrola Effect and Sustainability of the NIM Improvement

Nubank benefited from Brazil’s Desenrola debt-refinancing program, which launched this year to help individuals renegotiate overdue obligations 1. Livingston was careful to contextualize the tailwind: Desenrola accounted for only about 5% of the bank’s total cost of credit, and the margin improvement would have materialized regardless, driven by seasonal factors and tighter underwriting.

Livingston said on the analyst call that the current risk-adjusted NIM level “is seen as sustainable in the foreseeable future”-a phrase that carries weight for investors trying to model normalized earnings power rather than cyclical spikes. If that 12%-plus range holds as the credit book grows, the compounding effect on net income could be material over a multi-year horizon.

Outlook

Management provided no formal numerical guidance, but Livingston’s commentary on NIM sustainability and the measured credit-growth pace signals a preference for margin protection over volume maximization in the near term. The pending U.S. expansion adds an optionality layer that is not yet priced into most models, given the regulatory complexity of entering that market.

Long-horizon investors will want to watch whether the 12.4% risk-adjusted NIM holds through the second half, particularly as Desenrola’s contribution fades and the Brazilian macro cycle evolves.

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

References

1Romani, Andre (2026-08-13). “Nubank quarterly net profit beats estimates, topping $1 billion for first time”. Reuters. Retrieved 2026-08-13.

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